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SA's future in the balance
ANC is going to elect its new president on its conference, the result being expected to come on Monday. It's now a two-horse race, Mbeki vs Zuma. Ultimately, the winner takes it all, and will be the next South African president after the 2009 elections, because of ANC's electoral domination. And the race is now heating up. Curiously, a sangoma predicted a Mbeki victory while the registration began for the Polokwane conference amidst a new scandal, following the renewal of the corruption charges against Zuma. Meanwhile, long-time finance minister (and wannabe World Bank chairman) Trevor Manuel, who has been the man "to blame" for South Africa's remarkable economic stability within the past decade, was involved into one of the many scandals surrounding the pre-conference preparations. The question is, would he stay in the government if Zuma wins the election as it is expected? This looks highly unlikely. The consequences from a Zuma victory are rather unpredictable. And a Zuma victory looks more probable than ever, despite all the punches under the belt that he's been taking. Even Tutu opposed him, but all the efforts of Mbeki's camp seem to be too little, too late. But it's still curious enough whether there will be even more tricks coming out of Mbeki's sleeve as he is making the final push before the ANC conference. It's gonna be a damn good circus...
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So I'm not an active ANC member for some years already, but I still participate in political discussions with some o the students in my University. They are mostly associated with the ANC Youth League. And before this conference, the Youth League decided to endorse Jacob Zuma.
Personally I have some reserves about Zuma. I think he is a to controvesial and polarizing figure. I'd have preferred someone else to be president - neither Zuma, nor Mbeki (who represents the status quo, which needs a change). Maybe Mrs Msimang would have been a good option. But she's a woman, and people are still not ready to imagine a woman on the steering wheel.
There used to be two serious contenders - Tokyo Sexwale and Cyrill Ramaphosa, who are respected businessmen and are regarded as "technocrats" (pragmatic people who don't care too much about political sentiments). But for one reason or another, they both decided to quit the race (they endorsed Mbeki). Meanwhile, most of the Provinces endorsed Zuma. So he is the favorite to win the race.
If you ask me, I would mostly prefer the finance minister, Trevor Manuel (I mentioned him in this post). But he also quit the race. So, in this situation I really don't know whom I would've voted for, if I still had my membership card with me. Maybe I'm pro-Mbeki 51% and pro-Zuma 49%...
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