A) The Castro way. Everyone waits for him to grow old and die. Then his successors either (A.a.) liberalise the country and everything goes back to normal or (A.b.) become even more sinister dictators and the country plunges into chaos.
B) The Saddam way. International sanctions suffocate the country. Here the scenario splits into two possibilities (B.a.) the regime collapses from within, either due to internal frictions in the ruling party or a revolution/uprising; and (B.b.) the regime doesn't surrender, so there's an international intervention (invasion? bombing?)
C) The Botha way. A huge international pressure and isolation forces the regime to disband. Here follows either (A.a.) or (A.b.)
D) The Gorbatchev way. The brains suddenly return into Mugabe's head and he decides that his country has had enough of suffering.
(A) is the most highly probable (over 50%). Then follows (B) with roughly 25%, then (C) with 20% and (D) with 5%. That's what I think.
no subject
A) The Castro way. Everyone waits for him to grow old and die. Then his successors either (A.a.) liberalise the country and everything goes back to normal or (A.b.) become even more sinister dictators and the country plunges into chaos.
B) The Saddam way. International sanctions suffocate the country. Here the scenario splits into two possibilities (B.a.) the regime collapses from within, either due to internal frictions in the ruling party or a revolution/uprising; and (B.b.) the regime doesn't surrender, so there's an international intervention (invasion? bombing?)
C) The Botha way. A huge international pressure and isolation forces the regime to disband. Here follows either (A.a.) or (A.b.)
D) The Gorbatchev way. The brains suddenly return into Mugabe's head and he decides that his country has had enough of suffering.
(A) is the most highly probable (over 50%). Then follows (B) with roughly 25%, then (C) with 20% and (D) with 5%. That's what I think.