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mahnmutTurkmen autoritarian president Saparmurat Niyazov is dead. There were rumours in the russian press last summer that Turkmenbashi had a fatal disease and wouldn't live until the end of 2006. This prediction came true, which now makes me trust the russian press a bit more than before.
Turkmenistan was a country ruled by this dictator who misappropriated its wealth and put it in his personal account in a european bank. He wanted to bring his subjects to their knees and kept hostage the relatives of his regime's opponents.
It's natural to wish a better life for one's own country. Turkmenistan's future is being decided now. Elections are due in 2 months. Now it's the time for heated debates, political bargaining and a huge struggle for power.
Gas resources of this small central-asian country are a serious argument for a big-time political battle. One could say that Turkmenistan cannot get away from Russia because its gas travels through Russian pipes. Hence, the new government will primarily orient itself to Russia. In other words, Russia will be number 1 in any event.
But the situation isn't that simple. Steady gas supplies are as important as the gas itself. But supplies are steady when there is political stability in the 1st place. If the power struggle becomes extreme, there will be no stability or steady supplies of anything.
US presence in the area is a major factor too. I don't believe for a minute that Washington is indifferent to the future Turkmen government (Niyazov prohibited flights of US aircraft over turkmen territory). The US is now even more interested in Turkmenistan because it has a chance to match its resources with democracy, and make the task of building political and economic ties with it much simpler. Moreover, the US and NATO are close nearby - in Afghanistan, separated from Turkmenistan by an almost unguarded border, which is being actively used by drug traffickers.
Besides, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran are also near. KZK and UZB are central Asia's leaders in economic power and strength of the population, and have obvious economic interests in Turkmenistan. Moreover, in case of serious disorder (which may force people to flee to neighbouring states), they will have to protect the lives and property of the kazakh and uzbek minorities there.
Gas pipelines, mixed population in the border areas and military presence in the region are all good things, but the new government must be personified, and this is the most difficult problem.
The dictator did not believe in the inevitaility of physical laws (he almost deified himself). In any case, he did not think about his successor. He mercilessly put behind bars all those who showed even the smallest desire for power (he also sent people to prison for a thousand other reasons). But some managed to escape.
In asian political tradition, his son Murad would become his only more or less legitimate successor in this situation. He has gone into business, has lived with his family in Wien for the past two years, and has nothing to do with the power struggle at home. If he took part in it, he would inevitably become Number 1 candidate. However, he has no political experience or grip, dictatorial ways, or a team...
Such a candidate is bound to become a screen in most cases.
Under the constitution, elections should take place in late February, but the acting president (the current health minister) cannot run for the position himself.
The range of political forces admitted to the elections will be decisive to determine Turkmenistan's future. The interim government will have its say on this issue.
Let's see possible scenarios. Scenario Number One: regular behind-the-scenes struggle with Murad as a banner or without him; Murad is likely to be involved, and as a result, Turkmenistan will receive an unstable quasi-dictatorship; for lack of political legitimacy, a simple conspiracy will not allow its participants to achieve stability.
Scenario Number Two: all political forces are represented in the elections. Since Turkmenistan doesn't have parties, politics or a powerful clan structure, this will mean return of the opposition - all those who had to escape from Turkmenbashi, who had been waiting in Russia for better times, or hiding in Europe, and who are ready to come back if Russia guarantees their security despite its agreement with Turkmenistan on extradition of criminals (at Turkmenbashi's demand, Interpol is after two out of three main opposition leaders that received asylum in Europe). The opposition leaders understand that they can only orient themselves to Russia.
The US has its candidate as well. There is also a young turkmen elite that has studied in the US. Naturally enough it's oriented strictly to the West.
There are only 2 strong candidates inside the republic - the defense minister and the head of the presidential guards, who are locked in strife.
If the power struggle becomes drawn out and spills over to the streets, Turkmenistan may be in for some dramatic events. Abundant natural resources have given little to its population. This year's harvest was not good, and russian Turkmens had to send flour and other food to their relatives. Under these circumstances, the army isn't likely to hold back the discontented.
Another difficult question is what to do with the political prisoners inside the country? Should they be kept behind bars? If an amnesty is announced, criminal offenders will leave prisons as well, and may provoke disorder.
This is how the situation in Turkmen politics looks like today. I'm most prone to place my bets on Russia in this big game.
To sum up, Russia has 2 options. The 1st one is to stay out of the battle for power, wait it out, and agree with the winner, in which case we'll be where they are now.
The 2nd choice is to make an effort to consolidate turkmen society and promote real political competition. They should be linked not only by gas pipes, but also by real friendship and good neighbourly relations.
In this way Russia will not only display some high moral standards, but will also gain clear political and economic advantages before its rivals.
I recall they once built the Friendship Gas Pipeline there. This was better than pipeline-based friendship.
It's natural to wish a better life for one's own country. Turkmenistan's future is being decided now. Elections are due in 2 months. Now it's the time for heated debates, political bargaining and a huge struggle for power.
Gas resources of this small central-asian country are a serious argument for a big-time political battle. One could say that Turkmenistan cannot get away from Russia because its gas travels through Russian pipes. Hence, the new government will primarily orient itself to Russia. In other words, Russia will be number 1 in any event.
But the situation isn't that simple. Steady gas supplies are as important as the gas itself. But supplies are steady when there is political stability in the 1st place. If the power struggle becomes extreme, there will be no stability or steady supplies of anything.
US presence in the area is a major factor too. I don't believe for a minute that Washington is indifferent to the future Turkmen government (Niyazov prohibited flights of US aircraft over turkmen territory). The US is now even more interested in Turkmenistan because it has a chance to match its resources with democracy, and make the task of building political and economic ties with it much simpler. Moreover, the US and NATO are close nearby - in Afghanistan, separated from Turkmenistan by an almost unguarded border, which is being actively used by drug traffickers.
Besides, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran are also near. KZK and UZB are central Asia's leaders in economic power and strength of the population, and have obvious economic interests in Turkmenistan. Moreover, in case of serious disorder (which may force people to flee to neighbouring states), they will have to protect the lives and property of the kazakh and uzbek minorities there.
Gas pipelines, mixed population in the border areas and military presence in the region are all good things, but the new government must be personified, and this is the most difficult problem.
The dictator did not believe in the inevitaility of physical laws (he almost deified himself). In any case, he did not think about his successor. He mercilessly put behind bars all those who showed even the smallest desire for power (he also sent people to prison for a thousand other reasons). But some managed to escape.
In asian political tradition, his son Murad would become his only more or less legitimate successor in this situation. He has gone into business, has lived with his family in Wien for the past two years, and has nothing to do with the power struggle at home. If he took part in it, he would inevitably become Number 1 candidate. However, he has no political experience or grip, dictatorial ways, or a team...
Such a candidate is bound to become a screen in most cases.
Under the constitution, elections should take place in late February, but the acting president (the current health minister) cannot run for the position himself.
The range of political forces admitted to the elections will be decisive to determine Turkmenistan's future. The interim government will have its say on this issue.
Let's see possible scenarios. Scenario Number One: regular behind-the-scenes struggle with Murad as a banner or without him; Murad is likely to be involved, and as a result, Turkmenistan will receive an unstable quasi-dictatorship; for lack of political legitimacy, a simple conspiracy will not allow its participants to achieve stability.
Scenario Number Two: all political forces are represented in the elections. Since Turkmenistan doesn't have parties, politics or a powerful clan structure, this will mean return of the opposition - all those who had to escape from Turkmenbashi, who had been waiting in Russia for better times, or hiding in Europe, and who are ready to come back if Russia guarantees their security despite its agreement with Turkmenistan on extradition of criminals (at Turkmenbashi's demand, Interpol is after two out of three main opposition leaders that received asylum in Europe). The opposition leaders understand that they can only orient themselves to Russia.
The US has its candidate as well. There is also a young turkmen elite that has studied in the US. Naturally enough it's oriented strictly to the West.
There are only 2 strong candidates inside the republic - the defense minister and the head of the presidential guards, who are locked in strife.
If the power struggle becomes drawn out and spills over to the streets, Turkmenistan may be in for some dramatic events. Abundant natural resources have given little to its population. This year's harvest was not good, and russian Turkmens had to send flour and other food to their relatives. Under these circumstances, the army isn't likely to hold back the discontented.
Another difficult question is what to do with the political prisoners inside the country? Should they be kept behind bars? If an amnesty is announced, criminal offenders will leave prisons as well, and may provoke disorder.
This is how the situation in Turkmen politics looks like today. I'm most prone to place my bets on Russia in this big game.
To sum up, Russia has 2 options. The 1st one is to stay out of the battle for power, wait it out, and agree with the winner, in which case we'll be where they are now.
The 2nd choice is to make an effort to consolidate turkmen society and promote real political competition. They should be linked not only by gas pipes, but also by real friendship and good neighbourly relations.
In this way Russia will not only display some high moral standards, but will also gain clear political and economic advantages before its rivals.
I recall they once built the Friendship Gas Pipeline there. This was better than pipeline-based friendship.
