Jasmine revolution 2.0?
Jan. 18th, 2011 02:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mahnmut23 years after the bloodless "Jasmine putsch" brought Zine Abidine ben Ali to power in Tunisia, he was again brought down with a jasmine revolution. And the country which has had only two presidents for its 45 years of independence suddenly changed three of them overnight. After ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia his prime minister Mohamed Ghannouchi was given the post, but despite all the revolutionary chaos the constitutional procedure was followed and the presidential chair was eventually given to the speaker of parliament, Foued Mebazaa.
In the middle of furious protests lasting for almost a month now, Ghannouchi announced the new "national unity" government which should prepare the country for elections in 60 days. The key power ministers of defense and the internal affairs were kept, some guys from the opposition stepped in, and the Ministry of information was suspended. The prime minister also announced all political prisoners will be released.
Meanwhile the situation remains volatile on the streets. There's martial law after ben Ali's flight last Friday, and yesterday the protests re-ignited with new force and the police had to disperse hundreds of protesters using water cannons, teargas and shots in the air. It remains unclear if the actions of the interim government would satisfy the expectations of the Tunisian people and whether they'll lead to real change.
And the list of demands isn't short. Tackling rampant unemployment, brutal police force, corruption and autocratic methods for curbing freedom of speech, democracy and the respect for civil rights. It's not easy to meet these expectations. The further developments will depend on whether ben Ali's regime will go along with him. And because this is probably the only such post-colonial revolution in the Arab world (save for the "Cedar" revolution in Lebanon in 2005), there are no precedents to step on, so no one really knows where all this would lead. The only certain thing is that the rest of the autocratic leaders in the region will be watching this very anxiously and will be hoping that the Tunisian scenario doesn't spread abroad.
The sparkle that ignited the fire of discontent in Tunisia was the death of 26 year old vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi. He set himself on fire on December 17 after the police seized his trade license, and a week later he died of his wounds. The news of his suicide spread like fire and he was called a martyr by the people. Facebook, Twitter and some other internet media were again instrumental in this, just like in most other such events since the beginning of the 21st century. This set the barrel full of gunpowder on fire - it was full of suppressed anger with the extremely high unemployment (especially among the young and those with high education), the surging food prices, the lack of perspectives, corruption and political repression.
The government's first response was to try to extinguish the fire by force. Hundreds of people were arrested, dozens were killed. The president called the protesters "terrorists" and then he shut down the schools and universities to keep the youth at home. But then he changed the tactic as he gradually began to understand that to his surprise, and to the disbelief of the outside observers, his regime was actually doomed to crumble down eventually.
The rapid development of the events left a power vacuum which the new government may not be fully capable of filling. The desired transition to more democracy won't be fast and neither will it be painless. After long years of oppression the opposition is weak and split and it's unclear who could make a real change and how exactly. But at least we could say there's one despot less on the stage.
The paradox is that Tunisia was widely considered an oasis of stability and economic reliability, and the western business felt in safe waters for doing investments and using Tunisia as a source of cheap labor. The fact that this model crumbled in just a few days is a surprise not only to the former rulers of the country but to all outside spectators. It won't be a surprise if these events have made a number of Arab leaders very nervous because their confidence that their regimes are unshakable must have suffered quite a bit. Because Tunisia was pointed at as one of the most stable among the stablest regimes in the Arab world.
From a first sight, the similarities with the other countries in the region are striking. Street protesters already gathered in front of the Tunisian embassy in Egypt, chanting "Mubarak, you're next!" and "Ben Ali, tell Mubarak that the plane is waiting for him too!" Recently there were protests in Jordan against the food prices, unemployment and poverty. Street protests were organized in Algeria, where a few days ago a man tried to set himself on fire in front of a government building, protesting the lack of jobs and homes.
But does this look like a domino effect? I'd say, probably no. The events in Tunisia are looking more like the birth of Solidarność in Poland, rather than the fall of the Berlin wall. They could be the sparkle which would trigger the changes in the Arab world that no one had predicted, but for now there's very little chance that the governments in the region would start falling down one after another like domino blocks. But that doesn't mean that every Arab leader won't be looking at Tunisia with fear, and every Arab citizen with hope and solidarity.
x-posted to![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-community.gif)
talk_politics
In the middle of furious protests lasting for almost a month now, Ghannouchi announced the new "national unity" government which should prepare the country for elections in 60 days. The key power ministers of defense and the internal affairs were kept, some guys from the opposition stepped in, and the Ministry of information was suspended. The prime minister also announced all political prisoners will be released.
Meanwhile the situation remains volatile on the streets. There's martial law after ben Ali's flight last Friday, and yesterday the protests re-ignited with new force and the police had to disperse hundreds of protesters using water cannons, teargas and shots in the air. It remains unclear if the actions of the interim government would satisfy the expectations of the Tunisian people and whether they'll lead to real change.
And the list of demands isn't short. Tackling rampant unemployment, brutal police force, corruption and autocratic methods for curbing freedom of speech, democracy and the respect for civil rights. It's not easy to meet these expectations. The further developments will depend on whether ben Ali's regime will go along with him. And because this is probably the only such post-colonial revolution in the Arab world (save for the "Cedar" revolution in Lebanon in 2005), there are no precedents to step on, so no one really knows where all this would lead. The only certain thing is that the rest of the autocratic leaders in the region will be watching this very anxiously and will be hoping that the Tunisian scenario doesn't spread abroad.
The sparkle that ignited the fire of discontent in Tunisia was the death of 26 year old vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi. He set himself on fire on December 17 after the police seized his trade license, and a week later he died of his wounds. The news of his suicide spread like fire and he was called a martyr by the people. Facebook, Twitter and some other internet media were again instrumental in this, just like in most other such events since the beginning of the 21st century. This set the barrel full of gunpowder on fire - it was full of suppressed anger with the extremely high unemployment (especially among the young and those with high education), the surging food prices, the lack of perspectives, corruption and political repression.
The government's first response was to try to extinguish the fire by force. Hundreds of people were arrested, dozens were killed. The president called the protesters "terrorists" and then he shut down the schools and universities to keep the youth at home. But then he changed the tactic as he gradually began to understand that to his surprise, and to the disbelief of the outside observers, his regime was actually doomed to crumble down eventually.
The rapid development of the events left a power vacuum which the new government may not be fully capable of filling. The desired transition to more democracy won't be fast and neither will it be painless. After long years of oppression the opposition is weak and split and it's unclear who could make a real change and how exactly. But at least we could say there's one despot less on the stage.
The paradox is that Tunisia was widely considered an oasis of stability and economic reliability, and the western business felt in safe waters for doing investments and using Tunisia as a source of cheap labor. The fact that this model crumbled in just a few days is a surprise not only to the former rulers of the country but to all outside spectators. It won't be a surprise if these events have made a number of Arab leaders very nervous because their confidence that their regimes are unshakable must have suffered quite a bit. Because Tunisia was pointed at as one of the most stable among the stablest regimes in the Arab world.
From a first sight, the similarities with the other countries in the region are striking. Street protesters already gathered in front of the Tunisian embassy in Egypt, chanting "Mubarak, you're next!" and "Ben Ali, tell Mubarak that the plane is waiting for him too!" Recently there were protests in Jordan against the food prices, unemployment and poverty. Street protests were organized in Algeria, where a few days ago a man tried to set himself on fire in front of a government building, protesting the lack of jobs and homes.
But does this look like a domino effect? I'd say, probably no. The events in Tunisia are looking more like the birth of Solidarność in Poland, rather than the fall of the Berlin wall. They could be the sparkle which would trigger the changes in the Arab world that no one had predicted, but for now there's very little chance that the governments in the region would start falling down one after another like domino blocks. But that doesn't mean that every Arab leader won't be looking at Tunisia with fear, and every Arab citizen with hope and solidarity.
x-posted to
talk_politics
