Syria: the next domino block
Mar. 21st, 2011 04:40 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mahnmutThe street protests in Damascus have intensified over the last week, and the government's brutality in response has begun to match that. Last week hundreds of Syrians gathered to protest against the government, calling for democratic reforms and for release of the political prisoners. AP reported that the first demonstrations had gone peacefully, but since last Tuesday the government has unleashed pro-Assad sympathizers against them, and they started beating the protestors, which prompted a police crackdown.
It's the well-known scenario from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere - first they formed a group in Facebook calling for a day of anger against Assad. The reasons are well-known too, unemployment, food prices and poverty. The noon prayer was the starting point and the protests quickly spread from there across town. BBC reported about many people being arrested, and amateur Youtube vids like the one below showed protesters calling for freedom of speech and an end to government corruption and an end to the martial law which has been in place ever since 1963.
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Some time later, the central square in Damascus saw scores of Assad supporters organizing a counter-rally, shouting things like "We're ready to die for Assad, we'll give our blood for Assad", etc suchlike Libya-familiar stuff.
Bashar al-Assad who came to power in 2000 after a decades long rule of his father, had started to slowly open up the economy, but still his administration remained very conservative. The political prisoners in Syria are thousands, and all larger opposition formations are banned. The government has blocked access to some internet websites and is exerting a strict control on the media.
However, after last week's protests the Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem promised that this year the Syrian people would finally get the long-expected and long-promised political reforms. There were hints that a multi-party system could be restored.
This isn't the first such wave of protests in Syria for the year. Last month there was a spontaneous rally on the old marketplace in downtown Damascus. A catalyst for the people's anger was a squabble between the police and a local vendor. In February, some youngsters who were supporting the rebels in Libya organized a peaceful demonstration in the capital city. But the police responded with brutality and it beat up some of them and detained many, using for pretext the fact that one of the youngsters had violated the preliminary instructions of the security forces.
For the time being, the observers are reluctant to pronounce definitive forecasts about the Syrian situation, and they prefer to wait and watch if this will go any further (and i myself may be about to lose a bet here). The Middle East societies are very diverse and it would be stupid to apply the Egyptian/Tunisian scenario, or the Libyan/Yemeni scenario, or the Bahraini scenario, or the Omani scenario to a country like Syria.
Besides, as BBC reports, Assad himself is still quite popular within Syria. After the Tunisian and Egyptian events he instantly started to take some measures for decreasing the food prices. Additional aid was given to the poor, and state servicemen were instructed to take extra care and amend their behavior towards the citizens. What's more, the further calls around the social networks for a big "day of anger" didn't meet much enthusiasm. The main reason seems to be the lack of a real opposition in the country and the fear from the security forces.
Still, many Syrians consider the reforms to be just cosmetic, and "too little, too late". A BBC analysis says that, despite all the measures taken against the corruption which has soaked the whole system, some persons close to the regime still remain untouchable. For example one of the biggest oligarchs and best Assad buddies, Rami Makhlouf who's a cousin to the president, is enjoying special privileges. But of course he's denying any wrongdoings.
In January, Assad told the Wall Street Journal that Syria was "more stable than Tunisia and Egypt and there's no threat of riots". But let's not forget that this is exactly what other leaders in the region, including those of Tunisia and Egypt, used to claim just before the outburst of the revolutions that brought them down. The second term of the Syrian president will be over in 2014. This year Syria expects regional and parliamentary elections. Some Syrians believe that this is a golden opportunity for change and a peaceful transition to democracy. Assad is standing in front of a fateful choice - either become the next Mubarak, or the next Qaboos. It's up to him.
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talk_politics
It's the well-known scenario from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere - first they formed a group in Facebook calling for a day of anger against Assad. The reasons are well-known too, unemployment, food prices and poverty. The noon prayer was the starting point and the protests quickly spread from there across town. BBC reported about many people being arrested, and amateur Youtube vids like the one below showed protesters calling for freedom of speech and an end to government corruption and an end to the martial law which has been in place ever since 1963.
[Error: unknown template video]
Some time later, the central square in Damascus saw scores of Assad supporters organizing a counter-rally, shouting things like "We're ready to die for Assad, we'll give our blood for Assad", etc suchlike Libya-familiar stuff.
Bashar al-Assad who came to power in 2000 after a decades long rule of his father, had started to slowly open up the economy, but still his administration remained very conservative. The political prisoners in Syria are thousands, and all larger opposition formations are banned. The government has blocked access to some internet websites and is exerting a strict control on the media.
However, after last week's protests the Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem promised that this year the Syrian people would finally get the long-expected and long-promised political reforms. There were hints that a multi-party system could be restored.
This isn't the first such wave of protests in Syria for the year. Last month there was a spontaneous rally on the old marketplace in downtown Damascus. A catalyst for the people's anger was a squabble between the police and a local vendor. In February, some youngsters who were supporting the rebels in Libya organized a peaceful demonstration in the capital city. But the police responded with brutality and it beat up some of them and detained many, using for pretext the fact that one of the youngsters had violated the preliminary instructions of the security forces.
For the time being, the observers are reluctant to pronounce definitive forecasts about the Syrian situation, and they prefer to wait and watch if this will go any further (and i myself may be about to lose a bet here). The Middle East societies are very diverse and it would be stupid to apply the Egyptian/Tunisian scenario, or the Libyan/Yemeni scenario, or the Bahraini scenario, or the Omani scenario to a country like Syria.
Besides, as BBC reports, Assad himself is still quite popular within Syria. After the Tunisian and Egyptian events he instantly started to take some measures for decreasing the food prices. Additional aid was given to the poor, and state servicemen were instructed to take extra care and amend their behavior towards the citizens. What's more, the further calls around the social networks for a big "day of anger" didn't meet much enthusiasm. The main reason seems to be the lack of a real opposition in the country and the fear from the security forces.
Still, many Syrians consider the reforms to be just cosmetic, and "too little, too late". A BBC analysis says that, despite all the measures taken against the corruption which has soaked the whole system, some persons close to the regime still remain untouchable. For example one of the biggest oligarchs and best Assad buddies, Rami Makhlouf who's a cousin to the president, is enjoying special privileges. But of course he's denying any wrongdoings.
In January, Assad told the Wall Street Journal that Syria was "more stable than Tunisia and Egypt and there's no threat of riots". But let's not forget that this is exactly what other leaders in the region, including those of Tunisia and Egypt, used to claim just before the outburst of the revolutions that brought them down. The second term of the Syrian president will be over in 2014. This year Syria expects regional and parliamentary elections. Some Syrians believe that this is a golden opportunity for change and a peaceful transition to democracy. Assad is standing in front of a fateful choice - either become the next Mubarak, or the next Qaboos. It's up to him.
x-posted to
talk_politics
