Mugabe is playing Mbeki & Motlanthe like fiddles

[mahnmut]

 

The combined might of the current and former presidents of South Africa, backed up by an assortment of regional leaders, have failed to get Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe to stick to the power-sharing deal.

Why? Because he's a lying, conniving, power-mad nutter. Let me spell it out one more time: Mugabe holds on to power until there is a crisis. He then agrees to negotiate with someone. Then he holds on to power until there is a fresh crisis. Then he agrees to negotiate... you get the picture.

He has played Thabo Mbeki like a violin, like a banjo, like a mandolin and finally, over the last several months, like a classical guitar.

Both presidents, former and current, are just stage extras on the Mugabe power show.

Comments

[moderndayhippie.livejournal.com]

What do you think it would take for him to actually step down and move out of the way? Would he have to get sick and die or is there any hope that he would move aside on his own?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

There are four scenarios.

A) The Castro way. Everyone waits for him to grow old and die. Then his successors either (A.a.) liberalise the country and everything goes back to normal or (A.b.) become even more sinister dictators and the country plunges into chaos.

B) The Saddam way. International sanctions suffocate the country. Here the scenario splits into two possibilities (B.a.) the regime collapses from within, either due to internal frictions in the ruling party or a revolution/uprising; and (B.b.) the regime doesn't surrender, so there's an international intervention (invasion? bombing?)

C) The Botha way. A huge international pressure and isolation forces the regime to disband. Here follows either (A.a.) or (A.b.)

D) The Gorbatchev way. The brains suddenly return into Mugabe's head and he decides that his country has had enough of suffering.

(A) is the most highly probable (over 50%). Then follows (B) with roughly 25%, then (C) with 20% and (D) with 5%. That's what I think.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

You missed one very obvious outcome. Assassination.

[madali.livejournal.com]

But which one would you think is the right way? The problem is that other countries can't really do much, aside from directly interfering with the country's sovereignty

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

(D) of course, but it sounds too perfect to ever come true. Then I think the Botha way would work best, especially since we have one such example as South Africa (at the end of apartheid).

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I thought the African Union has exactly this purpose.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Ouch!